mlbRogers Centre

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

19h 48m 15s

Tampa Bay Rays48%

Toronto Blue Jays52%

Toronto Blue Jays is favored at 52%, despite Tampa Bay Rays' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Projected total runs

Near league average

9.2

+0.2 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Tampa Bay Rays

4.6

–

Toronto Blue Jays

4.7

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 52%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayTampa Bay RaysToronto Blue JaysHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

70.0%

Offense (wRC+)

10.0%

Starter matchup

10.0%

Park & weather

10.0%

Ian Seymour

Shane Bieber

LHP

RHP

4.79

ERA

5.70

4.45

FIP

6.91

1.17

WHIP

1.73

10.5

K/9

7.2

3.5

BB/9

4.6

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—