mlbFenway Park

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

13h 47m 36s

Toronto Blue Jays37%

Boston Red Sox63%

Boston Red Sox is favored at 63%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and stronger starting pitching.

Toronto Blue Jays42%

Boston Red Sox58%

F5 · Projected score

Toronto Blue Jays

2.2

–

Boston Red Sox

2.7

Projected total runs

Near league average

8.8

-0.2 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Toronto Blue Jays

4.0

–

Boston Red Sox

4.9

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 63%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayToronto Blue JaysBoston Red SoxHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

63.3%

Starter matchup

24.5%

Park & weather

10.2%

Offense (wRC+)

2.0%

Trey Yesavage

Patrick Sandoval

RHP

LHP

3.78

ERA

4.82

4.10

FIP

3.04

1.16

WHIP

1.71

8.7

K/9

9.6

4.6

BB/9

1.9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—