mlbCoors Field

Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies

Washington Nationals35%

Colorado Rockies65%

Market underrates Colorado Rockies by 20 points · fresher bullpen

Colorado Rockies is favored at 65%, largely due to a fresher bullpen and the stronger offense, despite Washington Nationals' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Projected total runs

Leans over

9.4

+0.4 vs league avg 9.0

Projected score

Washington Nationals

4.0

–

Colorado Rockies

5.4

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Why 65%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayWashington NationalsColorado RockiesHome

Bullpen (last 14d)

42.4%

Offense (wRC+)

35.8%

Market consensus

17.6%

Starter matchup

2.4%

Park & weather

1.8%

Cade Cavalli

Gabriel Hughes

—

ERA

—

FIP

—

WHIP

—

K/9

—

BB/9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

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