npb京セラD大阪

Chiba Lotte Marines @ Orix Buffaloes

Chiba Lotte Marines43%

Orix Buffaloes57%

Orix Buffaloes is favored at 57%, largely due to the stronger offense and a fresher bullpen.

Chiba Lotte Marines44%

Orix Buffaloes56%

F5 · Projected score

Chiba Lotte Marines

2.3

–

Orix Buffaloes

2.6

Projected total runs

Leans over

8.9

+1.3 vs league avg 7.6

Projected score

Chiba Lotte Marines

4.1

–

Orix Buffaloes

4.7

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Tipsters: 56% Orix Buffaloes (2 sites)

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 57%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayChiba Lotte MarinesOrix BuffaloesHome

Offense (wRC+)

39.6%

Bullpen (last 14d)

39.6%

Starter matchup

17.0%

Park & weather

3.8%

河村説人

寺西

—

3.21

ERA

—

5.01

FIP

—

1.36

WHIP

—

3.9

K/9

—

2.3

BB/9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—