🔥STRONG+16pp
Bet: Tokyo Yakult Swallows to win
Our analysis
63%
Market
46%
▸ +16pp value
Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and offense (wrc+).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
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npb神 宮
Hiroshima Toyo Carp @ Tokyo Yakult Swallows
Hiroshima Toyo Carp37%
Tokyo Yakult Swallows63%
Market underrates Tokyo Yakult Swallows by 16 points · pitcher
Tokyo Yakult Swallows is favored at 63%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.
F5
Hiroshima Toyo Carp36%
Tokyo Yakult Swallows64%
F5 · Projected score
Hiroshima Toyo Carp
2.0
–
Tokyo Yakult Swallows
2.8
Projected total runs
Leans over8.7
+1.1 vs league avg 7.6
Projected score
Hiroshima Toyo Carp
3.7
–
Tokyo Yakult Swallows
5.0
Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.
Tipsters: 61% Tokyo Yakult Swallows (3 sites)
Betting recommendations
Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.
🔥STRONG
Bet: Tokyo Yakult Swallows leading after 5
Our analysis
64%
Market
—
Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and offense (wrc+).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Why 63%?
Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.
AwayHiroshima Toyo CarpTokyo Yakult SwallowsHome
Starter matchup
61.3%
Market consensus
25.2%
Bullpen (last 14d)
7.4%
Offense (wRC+)
3.1%
Tipster consensus
Only counted when tipsters and the market disagree by at least 5 percentage points and we have ≥2 tipster sources.
1.8%
Park & weather
1.2%
アドゥワ 誠
高橋 奎二
—
LHP
5.40
ERA
3.30
6.15
FIP
3.80
1.00
WHIP
1.25
9.0
K/9
8.3
3.6
BB/9
2.3
—
L3 ERA
—
—
Days rest
—