npbZOZOマリン

Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles @ Chiba Lotte Marines

9h 40m 21s

Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles48%

Chiba Lotte Marines52%

Chiba Lotte Marines is favored at 52%, largely due to the stronger offense and a fresher bullpen, despite Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Projected total runs

Leans over

8.4

+0.8 vs league avg 7.6

Projected score

Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

4.2

–

Chiba Lotte Marines

4.2

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Tipsters: 63% Chiba Lotte Marines (2 sites)

Why 52%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayTohoku Rakuten Golden EaglesChiba Lotte MarinesHome

Starter matchup

58.3%

Offense (wRC+)

13.9%

Bullpen (last 14d)

13.9%

Park & weather

13.9%

古謝樹

毛利海大

LHP

4.06

ERA

5.06

—

FIP

—

1.18

WHIP

1.37

7.5

K/9

5.4

2.2

BB/9

3.0

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—