Model vs market+6pp
Bet: Yomiuri Giants to win
Our analysis
59%
Market
52%
▸ +6pp value
Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and offense (wrc+).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
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npb東京ドーム
Chunichi Dragons @ Yomiuri Giants
14h 17m 26s
Chunichi Dragons41%
Yomiuri Giants59%
Market underrates Yomiuri Giants by 6 points · pitcher
Yomiuri Giants is favored at 59%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.
F5
Chunichi Dragons41%
Yomiuri Giants59%
F5 · Projected score
Chunichi Dragons
1.4
–
Yomiuri Giants
1.8
Projected total runs
Leans under5.7
-1.9 vs league avg 7.6
Projected score
Chunichi Dragons
2.5
–
Yomiuri Giants
3.2
Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.
Tipsters: 67% Yomiuri Giants (2 sites)
Betting recommendations
Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.
Model vs market+7pp
Bet: Yomiuri Giants leading after 5
Our analysis
59%
Market
52%
▸ +7pp value
Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and offense (wrc+).
Market % for F5 uses the full-game moneyline as a proxy (no F5 price from the odds source).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Why 59%?
Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.
AwayChunichi DragonsYomiuri GiantsHome
Starter matchup
46.4%
Market consensus
28.6%
Offense (wRC+)
8.3%
Tipster consensus
Only counted when tipsters and the market disagree by at least 5 percentage points and we have ≥2 tipster sources.
7.1%
Bullpen (recent form)
6.0%
Park & weather
3.6%
金丸 夢斗
井上 温大
LHP
LHP
2.67
ERA
2.19
3.29
FIP
2.97
1.18
WHIP
1.03
8.2
K/9
8.6
1.9
BB/9
2.1
—
L3 ERA
—
—
Days rest
—