npb甲子園

Hiroshima Toyo Carp @ Hanshin Tigers

14h 17m 31s

Hiroshima Toyo Carp40%

Hanshin Tigers60%

Market underrates Hiroshima Toyo Carp by 7 points · pitcher

Hanshin Tigers is favored at 60%, largely due to the stronger offense and market, despite Hiroshima Toyo Carp's starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp44%

Hanshin Tigers56%

F5 · Projected score

Hiroshima Toyo Carp

1.4

–

Hanshin Tigers

1.6

Projected total runs

Leans under

5.5

-2.1 vs league avg 7.6

Projected score

Hiroshima Toyo Carp

2.5

–

Hanshin Tigers

3.0

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Tipsters: 73% Hanshin Tigers (2 sites)

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 60%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayHiroshima Toyo CarpHanshin TigersHome

Offense (wRC+)

36.0%

Market consensus

23.0%

Starter matchup

20.0%

Bullpen (recent form)

12.0%

Tipster consensus

Only counted when tipsters and the market disagree by at least 5 percentage points and we have ≥2 tipster sources.

6.0%

Park & weather

3.0%

栗林良吏

才木浩人

LHP

2.49

ERA

2.63

2.52

FIP

2.61

0.85

WHIP

1.00

7.9

K/9

10.7

1.2

BB/9

1.8

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—