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Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters @ SoftBank Hawks

14h 17m 34s

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters44%

SoftBank Hawks56%

SoftBank Hawks is favored at 56%, largely due to market and tipsters, despite Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters47%

SoftBank Hawks53%

F5 · Projected score

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

2.2

–

SoftBank Hawks

2.3

Projected total runs

Leans over

8.1

+0.5 vs league avg 7.6

Projected score

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

3.9

–

SoftBank Hawks

4.2

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Tipsters: 83% SoftBank Hawks (2 sites)

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 56%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayHokkaido Nippon-Ham FightersSoftBank HawksHome

Market consensus

30.0%

Tipster consensus

Only counted when tipsters and the market disagree by at least 5 percentage points and we have ≥2 tipster sources.

27.5%

Offense (wRC+)

17.5%

Park & weather

15.0%

Bullpen (recent form)

7.5%

Starter matchup

2.5%

加藤貴之

松本晴

LHP

2.74

ERA

3.02

3.56

FIP

3.42

1.01

WHIP

1.19

4.5

K/9

9.6

0.8

BB/9

2.9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—