Chiba Lotte Marines is favored at 51%, largely due to tipsters, despite Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles' starting pitcher having the better numbers.
F5 · Projected score
Projected total runs
Near league average-0.1 vs league avg 7.6
Projected score
Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.
Tipsters: 57% Chiba Lotte Marines (2 sites)
Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.
Bet: Chiba Lotte Marines leading after 5
▸ +4pp value
Why: Model probability differs from the market by 4pp.
Market % for F5 uses the full-game moneyline as a proxy (no F5 price from the odds source).
Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet
Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.