npb横浜

Tokyo Yakult Swallows @ Yokohama DeNA BayStars

14h 17m 35s

Tokyo Yakult Swallows39%

Yokohama DeNA BayStars61%

Market underrates Yokohama DeNA BayStars by 4 points · pitcher

Yokohama DeNA BayStars is favored at 61%, largely due to stronger starting pitching and the stronger offense.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows41%

Yokohama DeNA BayStars59%

F5 · Projected score

Tokyo Yakult Swallows

2.0

–

Yokohama DeNA BayStars

2.5

Projected total runs

Leans over

8.1

+0.5 vs league avg 7.6

Projected score

Tokyo Yakult Swallows

3.6

–

Yokohama DeNA BayStars

4.6

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Tipsters: 53% Yokohama DeNA BayStars (2 sites)

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

Model vs market+4pp

Bet: Yokohama DeNA BayStars to win

Our analysis

61%

Market

57%

▸ +4pp value

Why: Model edge driven by stronger pitcher and offense (wrc+).

Historical hit rate: not enough historical games yet

Why 61%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayTokyo Yakult SwallowsYokohama DeNA BayStarsHome

Starter matchup

52.3%

Market consensus

24.8%

Offense (wRC+)

18.3%

Bullpen (recent form)

3.7%

Park & weather

0.9%

吉村貢司郎

深沢鳳介

LHP

—

4.61

ERA

3.38

4.64

FIP

3.50

1.15

WHIP

1.27

6.8

K/9

6.3

2.0

BB/9

2.3

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—