npb甲子園

Hiroshima Toyo Carp @ Hanshin Tigers

Hiroshima Toyo Carp44%

Hanshin Tigers56%

Starting pitcher edge favors Hiroshima Toyo Carp, but other factors tip the overall pick the other way.

Hanshin Tigers is favored at 56%, largely due to the stronger offense and a fresher bullpen, despite Hiroshima Toyo Carp's starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp45%

Hanshin Tigers55%

F5 · Projected score

Hiroshima Toyo Carp

1.4

–

Hanshin Tigers

1.7

Projected total runs

Leans under

5.7

-1.9 vs league avg 7.6

Projected score

Hiroshima Toyo Carp

2.6

–

Hanshin Tigers

3.0

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Tipsters: 57% Hiroshima Toyo Carp (2 sites)

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 56%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayHiroshima Toyo CarpHanshin TigersHome

Starter matchup

41.7%

Offense (wRC+)

38.3%

Bullpen (recent form)

17.5%

Park & weather

2.5%

栗林良吏

村上頌樹

—

LHP

2.72

ERA

1.93

2.60

FIP

3.12

0.90

WHIP

0.97

8.0

K/9

7.6

1.2

BB/9

1.7

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—