npb横浜

Tokyo Yakult Swallows @ Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Tokyo Yakult Swallows43%

Yokohama DeNA BayStars57%

Yokohama DeNA BayStars is favored at 57%, largely due to the stronger offense and a fresher bullpen, despite Tokyo Yakult Swallows' starting pitcher having the better numbers.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows45%

Yokohama DeNA BayStars55%

F5 · Projected score

Tokyo Yakult Swallows

2.0

–

Yokohama DeNA BayStars

2.2

Projected total runs

Near league average

7.7

+0.1 vs league avg 7.6

Projected score

Tokyo Yakult Swallows

3.6

–

Yokohama DeNA BayStars

4.1

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 57%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayTokyo Yakult SwallowsYokohama DeNA BayStarsHome

Offense (wRC+)

62.5%

Starter matchup

22.2%

Bullpen (recent form)

13.9%

Park & weather

1.4%

高梨裕稔

尾形崇斗

LHP

2.60

ERA

3.09

3.86

FIP

3.73

1.14

WHIP

1.15

7.7

K/9

9.4

2.2

BB/9

3.9

—

L3 ERA

—

Days rest

—