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Hiroshima Toyo Carp @ Chunichi Dragons

20h 59m 44s

Hiroshima Toyo Carp43%

Chunichi Dragons57%

Chunichi Dragons is favored at 57%, largely due to the stronger offense and a fresher bullpen.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp44%

Chunichi Dragons56%

F5 · Projected score

Hiroshima Toyo Carp

2.0

–

Chunichi Dragons

2.3

Projected total runs

Near league average

7.6

0.0 vs league avg 7.6

Projected score

Hiroshima Toyo Carp

3.5

–

Chunichi Dragons

4.1

Model's expected runs per team, blended with recent head-to-head history.

Betting recommendations

Clear value bets our model sees in this specific game.

The model finds no clear value bets for this game.

Why 57%?

Each bar is that factor's share of the total explanatory signal — a bigger bar means it moved the model more than the others, not that it 'caused' that % of the win probability.

AwayHiroshima Toyo CarpChunichi DragonsHome

Offense (wRC+)

75.7%

Bullpen (recent form)

18.9%

Starter matchup

2.7%

Park & weather

2.7%

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ERA

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FIP

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WHIP

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K/9

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BB/9

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L3 ERA

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Days rest

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